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主题报告六

发表于:2016年06月13日 分类:大宗商品市场:世界与中国

报告题目:Commodity Market Outlook and Prospects after the End of the Super Cycle

报告人:John Baffes

报告时间:2016.6.20 下午14:00-14:30

报告地点:之远楼11楼国际会议厅

报告人简介

    John Baffes,美国马里兰大学农业与资源经济学博士,世界银行高级经济学家,目前主要负责世界银行的大宗商品相关工作,包括季刊《商品市场前景》的出版工作,管理大宗商品价格数据库以及价格的预测工作和负责协调世界银行大宗商品相关的问题等。他的研究领域为商品市场、发展经济学和资源经济学,已在American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Journal of Development Economics和Development Policy Review等国际知名期刊上发表多篇论文。

报告摘要

    The post-2014 oil price plunge made oil a “normal” commodity. Oil prices are now about 50 percent lower than their early 2011 peaks, a decline which is remarkably similar to the price declines of metals and agricultural raw materials. What differed was the path of the decline, which was much sharper. The presentation will examine the causes of the oil price plunge, including the emergence of the shale oil industry as well as the role (or non-role) of OPEC. It will also analyze the implications of lower oil prices on other commodities, especially agriculture, which is a very energy intensive industry. The presentation will conclude with the World Bank’s view on longer term commodity price prospects along with upside and downside risks. Although oil will be discussed at length, the presentation will cover agriculture and metals as well.

固定链接: http://elab.dufe.edu.cn/archives/2146 | 实验经济学实验室